Verisure shaping up for an IPO

Strategic & Market Considerations

1. Debt Leverage & Use of Proceeds
   Verisure carries a significant debt burden. The IPO appears structured to help pay down debt, which is a major concern for investors who’ll look closely at leverage post-listing.

2. Recurring Revenue Model & Customer Base
   The company has millions of subscribers (homes + small businesses) across 17 countries, with strong retention rates. That gives appeal: predictable cash flows, scale, infrastructure already in place.

3. Competition & Regulatory Risks
   Threats from cheaper “DIY” alarm/security providers, consumer pressure on pricing, and regulatory compliance (monitoring, data/privacy/security) are risks. Also macro-market conditions are still volatile: interest rates, investor risk appetite, and IPO market sentiment matter.

4. Signaling & Broader Market Impact
   Verisure’s IPO is being watched as a litmus test for European IPO markets (especially private equity-backed firms). If it succeeds, it may encourage others in tech/services to reconsider IPOs vs staying private. It could also shift attention back to Stockholm as a viable listing venue.

Risks & What Could Go Wrong

Valuation may prove too rich vs peers (EV/EBITDA multiples in listed security service peers tend to be lower). Overpaying expectations may cause a soft post-IPO performance. Interest rates / macro downturn may make investors more cautious regarding debt and growth risk.

Execution risk: the technical and regulatory burden of scaling monitoring + hardware + safety compliance across many countries. The choice of “new shares vs secondary shares” will affect how much cash Verisure walks away with vs how much is extraction for existing owners.

Bottom Line & What To Watch

Verisure is likely to list in Stockholm sometime in late 2025 or 2026, raising €3-4 billion, with a valuation north of €20B. The success of its IPO will depend heavily on managing leverage, convincing investors of its recurring revenue strength, and the mood in European public markets.

What to watch in the coming months:

• Confirmation of final IPO date and whether it slips.

• The detailed IPO prospectus: debt structure, margin performance, customer growth.

• How comparable security service firms are valued (both listed ones and private ones).

• Investor sentiment in Stockholm / Nordics — is the regional market ready for a big PE-backed IPO?

• Macro risks: interest rate path, inflation, regulatory pressures.